By Corti Paul Lakuma, Research Analyst &  Lawrence Bategeka Principal Research Fellow EPRC On Saturday 21 of September 2013 terrorists-Alshabab, attacked and took hostages in # Westgate shopping mall located in an upscale West Nairobi community.  The fact that Westgate is frequented, mainly, by up market Kenyan shoppers and expatriates suggest that the terrorist hit at, arguably, one of the symbols of East Africa’s upcoming consumerism that is attracting local and foreign investments in the manufacturing and service sectors and ambitious real estate and infrastructural projects. The likely effect of such an attack on Uganda may be reflected in upward pressure on head line inflation to a double digit from the 7.3% predicted in August, 2013. Short run Instability in Tourism Cogently, the predicted rise in headline inflation may be explained by short run disequilibrium in the tourism sector as the number of tourist from the West and East reduce in respons...

By  Alex Thomas Ijjo, PhD Senior Research Fellow EPRC Regional integration in Africa holds the key to increasing intra-African trade and growing economies across the continent.   In fact, there is evidence of trade creation in relation to the East African Community’s (EAC) integration, according to a forthcoming study by Shinyekwa and Othieno of Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC).   The researchers not only find that trade will increase, but that regional trade will grow in importance relative to trade with traditional partners such as the US and the EU.   Economic integration among countries with similar economic characteristics has been questioned by conventional trade wisdom in the belief that such integration arrangements are more likely to “divert” rather than “create” trade among the partner states. This school of thinking fueled doubts regarding the trade prospects entailed in “South-South” regional integration initiatives. In addition, intra-Afri...

Inflation in Uganda has lately increased from 3.4 percent in April to 7.3 percent in August 2013. The surge in inflation has come on the backdrop of a prolonged drought that affected food production and resulted in poor harvests across the country.  Food Inflation The food supply shock has been exacerbated by the seasonal demand for seeds as the planting season starts. Thus food and cereal prices have started to increase and this has fed into higher inflation. For example, the average price for a kilogram of beans is now Ushs 2,500 compared to Ushs 1,500 two months ago. However, food inflation can feed into core inflation (that excludes food, energy and utilities prices) directly through its effect on the prices of processed food, cost push effects and inflation expectations for example through hoarding and speculative tendencies. Indeed increases in food inflation from -7.5 (minus 7.5) percent in April 2013 to 13 percent in August 2013 have been followed by increases...

By EPRC The Uganda government has again ignored calls to increase funding to the country’s agriculture sector disappointing majority of the public. The budget allocation to agriculture as a share of the national budget remains low in financial year 2013/14, at 3.4 per cent(Ush403.1bn) of the national budget. Public spending on agricultural sector in Uganda is still too low to meet the country’s commitment to the Maputo Declaration of 10pc. The Economic Policy Research Centre, during a national consultative meeting on June, urged government to increase funding for agriculture and at least honour its commitment to the Maputo Declaration. The budgetary allocations to the agricultural sector over ten years (2001/02 to 2011/012) have generally fluctuated between 3 and 5 per cent. And most funds are disbursed as small discrete projects whose contribution is not impact and nor sustainable. In the financial year 2010/11, the budget allocation to agriculture sector was only five per ce...

By EPRC Researchers in higher institutions of learning in Uganda are demanding for an extra-ordinary pay rise to about $17,000, almost doubling what the best paying country in the World, Canada offers for their best brains. The Ugandan researchers want pay for the best brains in their faculty pegged to the best paid civil servant. The best paid civil servant in Uganda, the Executive Director of Kampala City Council Authority, earns Ush43 million (about $17,000). They also propose government to boost research and development to one per cent of Gross Domestic Product. They argue that for Uganda should enhance research to join the global knowledge economy. The researchers say they are uncomfortable with Makerere University’s proposal of 100 per cent salary increment. “100 per cent salary increment by Makerere is too modest,” said Julius Kiiza, a senior researcher with Economic Policy Research Centre (EPRC), a prominent local think tank in Uganda. Kiiza, an associate...

Uganda is at the verge of losing the East African seed market unless government implements a very stringent legal framework to stop sale of fake seed. The country, reportedly has weak inspection machinery—hardly any government inspection is done on seed farms where seed multiplication takes place. The Economic Polic Research Centre, at a national debate to finds ways of reorganizing the agriculture sector for higher production on June 6, warned that Kenya would eventually stop buying Ugandan seeds. According to Julius Kiiza, a senior researcher at the Economic Policy Research Centre, Kenya has maintained restrictions on accessing Ugandan seed. “KEPHIS (Kenya Plant Health Inspectorate Service ) insists it cannot allow Uganda seed into Kenya unless it conducts its own on-sight inspection,” he said. KEPHIS is a regulatory agency for quality control of agricultural input and produce in Kenya. The agency coordinates all matters relating to crop pests and disease contro...

Uganda’s milk production has reached 1.9 billion litres rising prospects for more large scale investments in the diary industry. The country’s Minister for Agriculture, Animal Husbandry and Fisheries revealed that the growth in the number of heads of cattle was the main cause of milk production. “Livestock sector is doing better. Milk production has gone up significantly-1.9bn litters of milk. All animals are going up in terms of numbers. There are now 14 million heads of cattle,” said Hon Tress Bucyanayandi during the Agriculture and Food Security Forum on the theme, “Unlocking the export potential of Uganda’s agriculture sector,” chaired by the Economic Policy Research Centre on June 6, 2013 and held at Hotel Africana in Kampala, Uganda. The consultative meeting, which brought together about 200 stakeholders, was the first of its kind to generate meaningful debate on the future of the agriculture sector in Uganda. For the last 15-years, Uganda milk production has be...